Bonfring International Journal of Industrial Engineering and Management Science
Online ISSN: 2277-5056 | Print ISSN: 2250-1096 | Frequency: 4 Issues/Year
Impact Factor: 0.541 | International Scientific Indexing(ISI) calculate based on International Citation Report(ICR)
Stochastic Modelling to Identify Spatial and Temporal Changes in Rainfall Pattern Along the South West Coast of Kanyakumari District, India
Abstract:
In meteorology concept, rainfall is a dynamic phenomenon and it is vary from place to place. Rainfall is a major source for recharging the fresh water in both surface and sub surface of the earth. This study is to explore the changes in rainfall pattern in past, present from the historical rainfall series used to predict the probability of rainfall amount for subsequent years in future using the stochastic model along the coastal area of Kanyakumari district, Tamilnadu. Rainfall data series were collected from 28 rain gauge station located across the study area for the period of 35 years between 1971 and 2006. Stochastic modelling technique combined with transition matrix and frequency analysis has been introduced to execute the average annual rainfall data to drawn the spatial and temporal changes of rainfall amount at all stations according to the stochastic process and that provided the relative and cumulative probability class interval of rainfall for years in future. Each class is treated as states of frequency and the corresponding probability values are considered and assigned to sets of defined year. From the prediction of rainfall, it is estimated that the probable amount of rainfall is 401 mm ? 509 mm for the period of 2012 and 2014 and the amount of rainfall in 2013 is 901 mm ? 1009 mm.
Keywords: Average Annual Rainfall, Spatial and Temporal Changes, Markov-Chain Model, Rainfall Prediction, Transition Matrix, Southwest Coast, India
Volume: 2 | Issue: Special Issue on Geospatial Technology Development in Natural Resource and Disaster Management
Pages: 16-19
Issue Date: July , 2012
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